Wednesday 7 August 2019

Polish Ultimate Power Rankings

Polish Ultimate Power Rankings January - June 2019


These are the Polish Power Rankings for the Summer of 2019.

 I did already publish them on smash.gg and the Super Poland Bros. Discord, but many questions were left unanswered. I will use this blog to explain every player's placement and showcase all of their stats.

The formula

This season didn't use any particular formula that automatically calculates the placement of each player, as there was no previous data to work with(PRs use the ranks from the previous season to determine the weight of a tourney and to reward a player for set wins). So, I manually assessed all the data I collected using braacket.com to sort players into groups and to then examine their resumees when compared to each other. The next season will improve in this area, as a group of people will help creating an even more objective PR based on the Glicko algorithm. 

Honorable Mentions:

Zychuu, J.J, Methyou

These players make the honorable mentions thanks to the relatively consistent showings from Zychuu and J.J and Methyou's 7th place finish at Polish Smash Phoenix. Zychuu and J.J unfortunately miss out due to the lack of sufficient top 10 wins(with Zychuu only having one win on Drayv's Zelda) and J.J failing to beat anyone ranked above, despite beating people below him. Methyou doesn't make the list, as his singular placing, albeit a very good one, can't outdo Pitylord's very good performance at Szczecin 7 and his 2 top 10 wins compared to Methyou's one win on Pitylord himself.

10. Pitylord


Placements:
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 7: 2nd
Polish Smash Phoenix:              9th

Average Placing: 5.5

Set wins in the top 10: Aggrise x1, Anikai x1
Loses outside the top 10: Methyou x1

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 56%

Set Count vs. Top 10 2-3
Set Count vs. Top 5   1-3

Pitylord is the first entry on the PR. He makes it mostly because of his outstanding second place finish at Szczecin 7, where he beat Anikai and Aggrise to make it to Grand Finals, before losing to Aggrise twice. The next tournament he attended, however, he significantly underperformed by losing to Methyou to place just outside the top 8, at 9th, without claiming any meaningful wins along the way. This low is the reason for him being outplaced by the number 9 on this list.

9. Koziołek


Placements:
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 7: 3rd
Polish Smash Phoenix:              5th

Average Placing: 4

Set wins in the Top 10: Anikai x1, Spyder x1
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 64%

Set Count vs. Top 10 2-4
Set Count vs. Top 5   1-3

Koziołek makes it to 9th on the PR, just barely outplacing his brother. The argument between the placing of these two is mostly one of peaks vs. consistency. And this time, the consistency just edges it out. Koziołek's lack of non-Top 10 loses, and two really strong tournament performances, including a better performance at the much more stacked event, put him firmly at this spot. The first tournament he attended was Szczecin 7, where he defeated Anikai and lost to Aggrise twice to place 3rd, a respectable finish. At Polish Smash Phoenix he delivered his breakout performance, beating Spyder in a very close, back and forth set, to get 5th place after losing to Kandif. 

8. Megaban


Placements:
New Meta Smash:    4th
Hackroom Smash 1: 3rd
Hackroom Smash 2: 4th
Hackroom Smash 3: 3rd
Hackroom Smash 4: 2nd

Average Placing: 3.2

Set wins in the Top 10: Drayv x2
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: +2

Winrate: 61%

Set Count vs. Top 10 2-9
Set Count vs. Top 5   2-9

As probably the most controversial placing on this season's Power Rankings, Megaban is ranked number 8th in Poland. The 6-8 ranked players were the hardest players to rank and their placings were all examined very carefully in many different aspects. Looking at Megaban's resumee we see very consistent results - with two 4th places, two 3rd places and one peak of 2nd. It's a very solid lineup of results, but all but one of them share one flaw, the fact, that they've mostly been achieved at less stacked events than the results of player ranked above him. Hackroom 3 was the most stacked event he attended, and he managed to place 3rd, beating Drayv and losing to Klopsiak and Gumanku. This result, however can be mirrored in Anikai's resumee, as he also beat Drayv and lost to two highly ranked players in Aggrise and Drayv to place 3rd, at a event which had more attendees as well. Megaban's lack of Major attendance and his inability to beat a ranked player other than Drayv, as well as a lack of a tournament win this season also contribute to this placement. His X-Factor of +2 also shows, that people believe that he has the skill to be ranked higher and only time will tell if his results will finally match these expectations.

7. Anikai


Placements:
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 6:              2nd
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 7:               4th
Polish Smash Phoenix:                            5th
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 8:               1st
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 9:              2nd
Super Smash Bros. Wratislavia Spring:  3rd
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin 10:            2nd
Average Placing: 2.7

Set wins in the Top 10: Aggrise x4, Drayv x1
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 63%

Set Count vs. Top 10 5-12
Set Count vs. Top 5   5-9

Just barely, Anikai takes the 7th spot on the PR. After an alright start to the season with a game 10 Grand Finals loss to Aggrise to place 2nd, Anikai underperformed at Szczecin 7, losing to Pitylord and Koziołek. This 4th place finish was the deciding factor for him being ranked below Kandif, who hasn't experienced this kind of low. At Polish Smash Phoenix he didn't do particularly well, nor poorly, placing at the predicted 5th place. It was after this tournament, however, that he started playing better, winning his first Szczecin over Aggrise, Szczecin 8, and placing 3rd at Smash Bros. Wratislavia Spring, beating Drayv and outplacing Kandif and dropping sets to Aggrise and Drayv. He finished the season with another 2nd place behind Aggrise, after beating him in winner's to lose two sets in Grand Finals. His X-Factor of 0 shows, that this rank roughly represents where the majority of people envision him at.


6. Kandif


Placements:
Polish Smash Phoenix:                            4th
Hackroom Smash 3:                                4th
BeerPass Fucking Epic Tournament II:   1st
Super Smash Bros. Wratislavia Spring:  4th
Average Placing: 3.25

Set wins in the Top 10: Koziołek x1, Anikai x1, Drayv x1
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: +1

Winrate: 67%

Set Count vs. Top 10 3-6
Set Count vs. Top 5   1-6

And the number 6 on this list goes to Kandif. Attending all 3 of the stacked events this season, he hasn't disappointed, placing 4th at all of them and collecting 3 different top 10 wins along the way. He also won the local BeerPass tournament, but it didn't affect his rank as it was far from being a valuable tournament win. Kandif's consistency at 3 separate big tournaments is what puts him here above Anikai and Megaban. He also defeated 3 different top 10 players, showcasing his ability to beat almost anyone he faces. His X-Factor of +1 indicates, that he is believed to have the skill of a top 5 player, but he needs even more tournament attendance to prove it.

5. Spyder


Placements:
New Meta Smash:                                    3rd
SmashOn1:                                               3rd
SmashOn2:                                               2nd  
Polish Smash Phoenix:                             7th
SmashOn3:                                               1st
Average Placing: 3.2

Set wins in the Top 10: Megaban x1, Drayv x4
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: -3

Winrate: 69%

Set Count vs. Top 10 5-8
Set Count vs. Top 5   4-7

The first member of the top 5, Spyder has delivered some great performances this season. Placing in the top 3 in all tournaments except Polish Smash Phoenix, which was the biggest downside of his resumee with a 7th place after losing to Koziołek, he was just behind Drayv and Gumanku for his remaining tournaments. He beat Megaban to place 3rd at New Meta Smash, only losing to Drayv twice. At SmashOn1, he managed to defeat Drayv, once again only being outplaced by the top 2. At SmashOn2 he proved his consistency beating Drayv again, and placing 2nd over the emerging talent Zychuu. And while his underperformance at Smash Phoenix was concerning, he bounced back taking 1st place at SmashOn3, double eliminating Drayv and putting their set count to 4-5 for the season. Spyder left for the UK after that tournament, which is why he missed the remaining SmashOn tournaments, but his perfomances up to that point put him firmly in 5th place, despite the general consensus ranking him lower by 3.

4. Klopsiak



Placements:
Hackroom 3: 2nd
SmashOn5:    1st  

Average Placing: 1,5

Set wins in the Top 10: Megaban x1, Kandif x1, Drayv x2, Gumanku x1
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 73%

Set Count vs. Top 10 5-3
Set Count vs. Top 5   3-3

Klopsiak is the fourth player on the PR. His rank was very hard to determine, as he only attended 2 tournaments this season. Some people have suggested putting him lower, due to low attendance, or higher, due to the nature of these performances. This rank is very reasonable, as he's ranked above players lacking consistency, like Spyder or Anikai, or lacking peaks, like Kandif or Megaban. The players ranked above him are both very consistent and have peaked sufficiently throughout the season. Both of his tournament performances are still extremely good, placing 2nd at Hackroom 3 only losing a game 10 Grand Finals to Gumanku and winning SmashOn5 over Drayv. He also became the second person to take a set off Gumanku this season, a feat only achieved once before by Drayv.

3. Aggrise


Placements:
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin #6:              1st
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin #7:              1st
Polish Smash Phoenix #1: Szczecin:        3rd
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin #8:             2nd
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin #9:              1st
Super Smash Bros. Wratislavia Spring:   2nd
Super Smash Bros. Szczecin #10:            1st


Average Placing: 1,57

Set wins in the Top 10: Pitylord x2, Koziołek x2, Anikai x8, Kandif x2, Spyder x1
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 77%

Set Count vs. Top 10 15-9
Set Count vs. Top 5   1-4

The first member of the top 3 this season, Aggrise is probably the most improved player since Smash 4. He quickly established himself as one of the strongest players in the country at the new game, winning three consecutive Szczecin tournaments(one outside of the season). He entered Polish Smash Phoenix with big expectations, as it was the first time he'd face players from outside the region offline. He performed extremely well, placing third after losing to Gumanku in winner's and Drayv in loser's. It was also his lowest placing all season, as he won four tournaments and placed second twice. His only losing set counts are Gumanku and Drayv, two players ranked above him.

2. Drayv


Placements:
New Meta Smash:                                  2nd
SmashOn1:                                             2nd
Hackroom 1:                                           2nd
SmashOn2:                                              1st
Hackroom 2:                                            3rd
Polish Smash Phoenix #1: Szczecin:      2nd
Hackroom 3:                                            5th
SmashOn3:                                              2nd
SmashOn4:                                              1st
Hackroom 4:                                            3rd
CyberFightClub:                                      1st
Super Smash Bros. Wratislavia Spring:  1st
SmashOn5:                                              2nd


Average Placing: 2,07

Set wins in the Top 10: Pitylord x1, Megaban x3, Anikai x1, Kandif x2, Spyder x5, Klopsiak x1, Aggrise x3, Gumanku x1
Loses outside the Top 10: Zychuu x1

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 70%

Set Count vs. Top 10 17-19
Set Count vs. Top 5   10-15

And the second player on the PR is Drayv. He has attended by far the most tournaments this season, attending 13 in just 6 months. He proved himself on most occasions as well, losing most of his sets to Gumanku and placing lower than third once, at Hackroom 3, where he placed 5th. This outliner doesn't hurt his resumee as much, though, as it's harder to perform consistently at a bigger amount of tournaments. Drayv has lost to Zychuu once, but he beat him twice afterwards to win the tournament so it doesn't hurt him at all.

1. Gumanku



Placements:
New Meta Smash:                              1st
SmashOn1:                                         1st
Hackroom 1:                                       1st
Hackroom 2:                                       1st
Polish Smash Phoenix #1: Szczecin: 1st
Hackroom 3:                                       1st
Hackroom 4:                                       1st


Average Placing:1

Set wins in the Top 10: Koziołek x1, Megaban x4,  Kandif x1, Spyder x1, Klopsiak x2, Aggrise x1, Drayv x9
Loses outside the Top 10: none

X-Factor: 0

Winrate: 94%

Set Count vs. Top 10 19-2
Set Count vs. Top 5   13-2

The undisputed best player in Poland this season. He won everything he attended only dropping two sets in the process, one to Drayv at Polish Smash Phoenix and one to Klopsiak at Hackroom 3. There's nothing else to say, he's been unstoppable.